economic growth and propelling corporate indebtedness, fuelled by rapid credit expansion from cheap and abundant foreign funding.
The global financial crisis has exposed the “home-grown” vulnerability of the Slovenian economy, bringing about the second largest GDP fall (9.4%) in the Eurozone after Greece, with a double-dip recession (2009, 2012–13). Growth rebounced in 2014 to 2.6% from its low,but the competitiveness of the Slovenian economy continued to slide in international rankings. For further recovery Slovenia, squeezed by high public debt at 82% of GDP, credit contraction despite EUR 5bn state aid injected into the 70% domestically (basically state) owned banking sector, and the continued threat of massive bankruptcy and debt overhang in the corporate sector, has 3 fundamentally different policy options.
− Profound restructuring of the banking system and the real sector, on the basis of earnest privatization and voluminous FDI inflow.
− Slow creditless recovery due to half-hearted reforms in the financial system and corporate sector.
− Substituting wide-ranging micro level restructuring with Government-stimulated credit expansion, reproducing current tensions in even higher magnitudes in the future.
In the current state of the Slovenian economy, equity-led growth, combined with far-reaching institutional reforms seems the only choice in laying the foundation for long-term sustainable economic development. This study outlines the critical further steps in re-invigorating the financial system, utilizing also the proposals elaborated by the author and his banking team for the Slovenian macro policy decision-makers.
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University Of Debrecen
Faculty Of Agricultural and Food Sciences and Environmental Management
Institute Of Land Utilisation, Regional Development and Technology
4032 Debrecen, Böszörményi út 138.
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